Hydro-Politics under Stress: A Quantitative Investigation of Water Scarcity and India–Pakistan Tensions (2015–2021)

Abstract

Keeping in view the intensifying geopolitical tensions and the water shortage in South Asia, this research highlights the relationship between the hydro-political conflict and water availability among India and Pakistan (2015-2021). Although there are various theories in the existing literature on environmental conflict but only a few studies have examined the phenomena quantitatively. This study does not find a significant correlation between water scarcity and conflict intensity, but a strong positive correlation between disagreement frequency and conflict severity (r = 0.935, p < 0.01) through time series data and Pearson Correlation test. This result suggests that the environmental degradation is not the only driving factor of the conflict but the strategic mistrust and the framing of the issue play a significant role. Rooted in realism and securitization theory, the study tells how nationalist narratives, such as the ones after Pulwama incident, shapes conflicts. By challenging environmental determinism, the research proposes a dual-theory framework and emphasizes the role of perception, diplomacy, and institutional trust in conflict prevention.

Keywords: Water scarcity, hydro-political tensions, Indus Waters Treaty, conflict intensity, securitization theory, classical realism, transboundary water governance, strategic mistrust, climate-induced stress, environmental diplomacy