China-U.S. Strategic Competition and Security Outcomes for South China Sea

Abstract

This study aims to answer one core question: how has China–U.S. strategic competition in the South China Sea (SCS) fundamentally reshaped regional security dynamics? The intensifying rivalry between these two great powers, characterized by assertive sovereignty claims, freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs), and advanced military deployments, has redefined the geopolitical landscape. A central paradox emerges: while direct armed conflict has been averted, regional insecurities have proliferated. This research moves beyond prevailing policy debates to analytically dissect the multifaceted nature of Sino-U.S. interactions encompassing diplomatic, economic, and military domains and their cumulative, systemic impact on SCS security. It argues that the competition has catalyzed a complex and unstable security dilemma, compelling regional states to engage in delicate hedging strategies, pursue military modernization, and reassess alliance commitments. The paper systematically examines how these bilateral power dynamics have inadvertently elevated risks of miscalculation, intensified militarization, and strained the regional rules-based order. Ultimately, this analysis seeks to provide a nuanced understanding of the transformed security architecture in the SCS, where great-power posturing directly influences the strategic calculus, threat perceptions, and security outcomes for all littoral states. The findings contribute to the broader literature on Indo-Pacific security by highlighting the intricate link between systemic competition and sub-systemic instability.

Keywords: China-U.S. Strategic Competition, South China Sea, Security Dynamics, Regional Security, Hedging Strategies, Militarization, Security Dilemma, Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs).