Pakistan's Relations with China: A Deepening Strategic Partnership

Abstract

Pakistan-China relations have evolved from a Cold War-era strategic alignment into a comprehensive, multi-dimensional strategic partnership characterized by deep political, economic, military, and diplomatic convergence. Rooted in early diplomatic recognition (1951), the 1963 border agreement, wartime support in 1965 and 1971, nuclear and missile cooperation in the 1970s–1980s, and post-9/11 continuity, the relationship reached a transformative phase with the 2013 launch of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. CPEC has delivered substantial benefits adding over 13,000 MW of power capacity, generating more than 261,000 jobs, modernizing transport infrastructure, and positioning Gwadar as a strategic node while military exercises (e.g., Shaheen and Warrior series), intelligence sharing, and defense production (e.g., JF-17 jets) have strengthened Pakistan’s deterrence capabilities. China’s consistent diplomatic support on Kashmir, NSG membership, and UNSC vetoes, reciprocated by Pakistan’s backing on Xinjiang, BRI, and the One-China policy, reinforces mutual reliability. However, asymmetries persist: Pakistan faces mounting debt exposure (China as a major creditor), security risks to Chinese nationals, localized resistance in Balochistan, and constrained negotiating leverage. In the post-2021 Afghanistan transition and intensified U.S.-China rivalry, the partnership functions as a counter-India axis and stabilizing quadrilateral with Afghanistan and Iran, yet risks over-dependence and regional polarization. This article provides a holistic assessment of the partnership’s drivers, benefits, costs, and future trajectories, arguing that while it remains a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy, sustainable deepening requires greater transparency, local inclusion, and strategic diversification to balance gains against emerging dependencies in a contested regional order.

Keywords: Pakistan–China Relations, CPEC, Strategic Partnership, Geopolitical Balancing, Debt Sustainability, Regional Implications