Conflict Management or Power Politics: Turkish–Russian Engagement in Caucasian Security Dynamics
Abstract
This study analyzes Conflict Management or Power Politics: Turkish–Russian Engagement in Caucasian Security Dynamics. The research focuses on key diplomatic, economic, and military interactions to examine how cooperation and competition between Turkey and Russia shaped regional security dynamics. Adopting a qualitative research approach, the study relies on secondary data drawn from academic literature, policy reports, books, journals, and credible news sources. A thematic analysis framework is employed to assess major developments, including diplomatic engagement, economic and energy cooperation, military interaction, crisis and normalization cycles, regional conflict management, strategic autonomy, and continuity and change in bilateral relations. The findings indicate that Turkish–Russian relations during the study period were characterized by managed competition, where pragmatic cooperation coexisted with persistent strategic rivalry. Diplomatic engagement primarily functioned as a mechanism for crisis management, while economic interdependence constrained prolonged confrontation without resolving underlying tensions. Military interaction and selective defense cooperation contributed to short-term stability but reinforced external influence and militarization in the Caucasus. The study also finds that Turkish–Russian engagement reduced the role of Western-led security frameworks, resulting in an externally managed and transactional regional security order. The study concludes that although Turkish–Russian relations helped contain large-scale violence in the Caucasus, they did not lead to durable peace. The regional security order that emerged between 2014 and 2022 remained fragile and dependent on continuous external management, leaving the Caucasus vulnerable to renewed instability. The research underscores the need for inclusive and preventive security approaches to achieve long-term stability in the region.
Keywords: Turkish–Russian relations; Caucasus security; Regional conflicts; Diplomatic Engagement; Economic and Energy Cooperation; Military interaction; Strategic Autonomy; Managed competition; 2014–2022
