Shifting Dynamics in U.S-Taiwan Relations under the Biden Administration (2021–2025): Insights from Power Transition Theory

Abstract

This study critically interrogates the evolving relations between the U.S-Taiwan during Biden administration (2021–2025) through the analytical prism of power transition theory. It is an attempt to fill the void of the theoretical framework used in traditional military and structural models. While past applications of power transition theory have tended to revolve around material capabilities and systemic polarity but this study extends the theory by highlighting the ways in which power hierarchies are discursively constructed and signalled behaviors within U.S-Taiwan-China triangle. The inquiry situates Taiwan at the intersection of competing hegemonic aspirations and regional realignments driven by China’s ascent and the United States’ recalibrated deterrence strategies. By using discourse analysis of official speeches, policy papers, and diplomatic statements, study examines how Washington and Taipei narrate their strategies to enhance and balance commitments and power transitions. Findings show that considerable change has occurred in the U.S rhetoric and these shifts in rhetoric can be defined as an intentional process in the U.S to secure its hegemonic validity in a world of established hierarchy. The novelty of the research is that it is a blend of a classical systemic theory and an interpretive approach where language is depicted as not a peripheral instrument but a necessary part of perceived changes in power and uncovers semantic shifts in U.S strategic language, evidencing a gradual transition from strategic ambiguity to pragmatic clarity and offers policy insight on the communication strategies that constitute the great power competition in the Indo-Pacific.

Keywords: U.S-Taiwan relations; power transition theory; Biden administration; Indo-Pacific; strategic ambiguity; discourse analysis; pragmatic clarity