The Arab Spring and Israel’s Security Environment: Threats, Opportunities, and Adjustments

Abstract

The Arab spring brought about the radical political changes in the Middle East and North Africa and it had a considerable effect on the security landscape in Israel. This paper takes a closer look at the causes and the processes of the Arab Spring and specifically the uprising in Egypt in 2011 and the protest that ensued in Bahrain. The Egyptian revolution was inspired by the previous Tunisian revolution and swiftly gathered extensive groups of the population in opposition to the economic challenge, political oppression, and corruption. One of the most crucial aspects to the success of the Egyptian movement was the move by the military to join the civil resisters and not become pro-President Hosni Mubarak. The strategic calculations of the military were influenced by economic interests, autonomy of the institutions and fears of the possible loss of the United States military assistance. The Bahraini protests are also analyzed by the paper and were a result of the historical sectarian and political resentment between the Sunni ruling elite and the Shi majority population. Unlike in Egypt, the ruling governments in Bahrain reacted using force thus the protest movement was brutally suppressed. Through these cases, the paper demonstrates the interplay of domestic political movements, military institutions, and international actors which is very complex, during the Arab spring. It also analyzes in what ways these developments changed the strategic environment in Israel, introducing uncertainties as well as new security issues in the area.

Keywords: Arab Spring, Egypt, Bahrain, Military Defection, Middle East Politics, Israel’s Security Environment