Geopolitical and Geo-economic Implications of a US–Israel Conflict with Iran: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Pakistan–Iran Relations

Abstract

This paper will discuss the geopolitics and economic consequences of a war in progress between the US and Israel, with Iran, with a focus on the effects it would have on the political relationship between Pakistan and Iran, and its economic interdependence. The rising tensions among these actors in an unstable international system are not only threatening the stability of the Middle East but also that of other regions, namely South Asia. (Liu, 2025, pp. 130-153) The study will employ a mixed research design, which will combine qualitative research of foreign policy action, diplomatic speech, and strategic-level alignments with quantitative analysis of trade flows, energy interdependencies, and macroeconomic variables.

The findings show that such a huge war would cause extreme political and economic instability, and Pakistan would have to seek means of escaping the complex diplomatic tensions between the big and regional blocs of countries. As Pakistan tries to balance competing interests and political tension is likely to strain its diplomatic ties with the United States, Iran, and the Gulf states in an effort to maintain a close balance between all these relationships.  Iran and the Gulf countries Economically, the analysis shows how greatly energy supply chains are exposed to the Strait of Hormuz to potential disruption, higher volatility of the world oil markets, and trade routes.

Moreover, as shown in the paper, the current sanctions imposed on Iran and a change in the relations in the region can further discourage bilateral economic cooperation between Pakistan and Iran. In the meantime, these changes do not provide much opportunity for strategic change. The present work will also play a role in the further elaboration of the changes that have happened in the region due to the conflict. It is based on theoretical insights into realism and geo-economics. The paper concludes with a conclusion and policy options which will help Pakistan to meet its geopolitical obligations as well as protect its economic interests in the rapidly changing strategic environment.

Keywords: War of the US and Iran, Tensions between Israel and Iran, Pakistan and Iran, Geo-economics, mixed methods, foreign policy.