Mainstreaming Climate Change into National Development Planning in Pakistan Policy Integration, Institutional Coordination, and Implementation Gaps A Qualitative Document-Analysis Study

Abstract

Pakistan stands among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, ranked the most affected nation in the Global Climate Risk Index 2025 for the year 2022 on the basis of cumulative human and economic losses. The 2022 mega-floods affected approximately 33 million people, displaced more than 8 million, and produced damages of about USD 14.9 billion together with economic losses of USD 15.2 billion (Government of Pakistan et al., 2022). The 2025 monsoon caused over 1,000 fatalities and affected 6.9 million people, with preliminary national damages estimated at PKR 822 billion (about USD 2.9 billion) (NDMA, 2025; OCHA, 2025). Despite this exposure, climate change remains weakly mainstreamed into the country’s national development planning system.

This paper examines why climate mainstreaming has failed as an operational practice even as Pakistan has formally adopted the National Climate Change Policy (2021), the Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (2021, with NDC 3.0 in 2025), and the National Adaptation Plan (2023). Using qualitative document analysis of climate policies, public-investment guidelines, the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2025–26, the new climate budget tagging framework, and provincial planning instruments, the study identifies six institutional and procedural barriers: (i) policy recognition without operational integration into routine planning procedures; (ii) fragmentation of climate governance across federal institutions and sectoral departments; (iii) weak federal–provincial coordination despite devolved implementation authority; (iv) a sharp budgetary disconnect, with the Ministry of Climate Change receiving only 0.22% of federal PSDP outlay (PKR 2.78 billion of PKR 1,287 billion) in FY 2025–26 against an estimated NDC investment requirement of about USD 348 billion by 2030; (v) uneven technical and data capacity across planning institutions; and (vi) absence of monitoring and accountability systems linking climate commitments to implementation outcomes.

The analysis demonstrates that climate mainstreaming in Pakistan operates as a cross-cutting development-governance problem rather than a purely environmental issue. Mainstreaming requires converting policy recognition into binding planning rules, aligning institutional responsibilities, securing dedicated and traceable budget allocations, building technical capacity at provincial and district level, and establishing transparent accountability systems. The paper contributes to climate governance literature by showing that mainstreaming failure reflects deeper coordination problems within Pakistan’s development planning architecture rather than inadequate policy formulation. The findings carry implications for institutional reform, climate finance design, and development effectiveness in climate-vulnerable economies.

Keywords: climate mainstreaming; national development planning; policy integration; institutional coordination; implementation gap; climate governance; public investment management; PC-1 appraisal; PSDP; climate budget tagging; Pakistan.