US-China Rivalry in the South China Sea and Regional Security Dynamics

Abstract

The South China Sea is now one of the key theaters of today's great power competition, where conflicting territorial claims, sea lanes of global commerce, and the military strategies of the United States and China converge in a small maritime area. In this article, which is an excerpt from a qualitative study of the competition from 2010 to 2024, attention will be paid to how Chinese island building and maritime assertiveness and American freedom of navigation exercises, alliance strengthening, and legal diplomacy are transforming Southeast Asian security order. It applies the logic of John Mearsheimer's offensive realism to both powers as security maximizers seeking to operate in an anarchic system and examines the implications of their competitive push for ASEAN unity, claimant state alignment and potential for accidental escalation. According to the article, the regional balance has changed due to militarisation, the erosion of multilateral dispute settlement and the coerced strategic review conducted by regional states and the likelihood of instability has increased. In the absence of continuous diplomacy and a common interpretation of the law of the sea, South China Sea will continue to be a long-lasting source of insecurity.

Keywords: South China Sea, United States, China, Offensive Realism, Regional Security, UNCLOS, ASEAN, Freedom of Navigation