Impact of Climate Smart Agriculture on Food Security in Pakistan: An Agent-Based Analysis for Punjab Province

Abstract

Pakistan ranks among the most climate-vulnerable nations globally, with its agricultural sector—contributing approximately 22.7% to GDP and employing 37.4% of the labor force—facing escalating threats from rising temperatures, erratic monsoon patterns, prolonged droughts, and catastrophic flooding events. With approximately 43% of Pakistanis experiencing food insecurity, understanding effective adaptation strategies is urgently needed. This study proposes an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate how the adoption of climate smart agriculture (CSA) affects food security among smallholder farming households in Punjab Province, Pakistan. The analysis investigates the role of social and ecological pressures—specifically community network effects, climate change scenarios under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and environmental externalities—on the adoption of water and soil management actions (WSA) and conservation practices (CP) including crop rotation and integrated nutrient management. The model is calibrated to survey data from Punjab Province covering 420 smallholder farm households. The findings reveal that CSA adoption can be an effective strategy to improve the food security of rural farming households with access to capital, strong social networks, and integrated food markets. Climate scenario simulations indicate that farmers adopting CSA practices fare substantially better than non-adopters under moderate climate change (RCP 4.5), though CSA adoption does not fully counterbalance the severe pressures of worst-case climate projections (RCP 8.5). Farmers with poor connections to food markets—particularly in remote districts of South Punjab—benefit less from CSA adoption due to stronger price oscillations and binding financial constraints. These results call for an active policy role in encouraging adaptation through CSA adoption by increasing access to agricultural credit, improving rural market infrastructure, and strengthening farmer information-sharing networks through extension services.

Keywords: Climate Smart Agriculture; Food Security; Agent-Based Modelling; Punjab Pakistan; Technology Adoption; Climate Change Adaptation; Externality; Sustainable Development