Agricultural Vulnerability and Food Security in Coastal Sindh

Abstract

Coastal Sindh, comprising the Indus Delta districts of Badin, Thatta, and Sujawal, faces compounding pressure from collapsing freshwater flows, seawater intrusion, and recurrent floods and cyclones. This paper combines published studies, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) district tables, and official records reported in the national press to assess how these pressures translate into food insecurity. Flow below Kotri Barrage fell from 155.36 billion cubic metres in 1959 to 0.32 in 2002, and cultivable land in Thatta shrank by about 58 percent between 1988 and 2018. In a survey of household heads in Badin and Thatta, 90.5 percent cultivated less land than in the previous season. IPC data show that 25 percent of Badin's and 20 percent of Sujawal's analysed population were in Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse in December 2025–March 2026. A Coastal Concentration Ratio, introduced here, shows that the delta districts hold about 15 percent of Sindh's analysed population but 28–32 percent of its current Phase 4 (Emergency) population and about 58 percent of its projected Phase 4 population; the ratio stays above one even at the lower edge of IPC's rounding band. A district vulnerability matrix exposes evidence gaps, notably Thatta's absence from the 2025–26 IPC analysis. The paper proposes a four-pillar resilience agenda: restoring environmental flows, adapting agriculture to salinity, targeting nutrition-sensitive social protection, and building early-warning systems.

Keywords: Coastal Sindh, Food Security, Indus Delta, Agricultural Vulnerability, Climate Resilience