Great Power Rivalry in Indo-Pacific: Impact on CPEC and Functional Operations of Gwadar

Abstract

The emergence of a new cold war involving great powers, particularly China and the United States, presents major risks to CPEC and Gwadar Port operations. These geopolitical crosswinds manifest through security threats, economic challenges, and geopolitical dynamics that have hampered the advancement of CPEC and Gwadar’s prospects as a regional center. Security threats include destruction of infrastructure, cyber threats, and naval blockade as well. Economic, trade, investment, and competition risks are associated with other port projects. This has made the risk perception of investing in Gwadar to be high due to geopolitical tensions that may hinder its sustainability. This paper provides a comprehensive review of these complex threats and stresses that only strong security, diplomacy, economic diversification, and regional integration can protect CPEC and guarantee the success of Gwadar. The future of both projects is hinged on the ability to manage the geopolitical environment and the risks that are associated with great power competition.

Keywords: Indo-Pacific, CPEC, Gwadar, China, Pakistan, US