Space Competition and Warfare: China-Russia Space Cooperation and Its Implications on U.S. Strategic, Technological, and Economic Administration

Abstract

Over the past decade, space has shifted from a predominantly cooperative domain to a highly contested arena, driven by renewed great-power rivalry and the proliferation of dual-use technologies (National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA], 2024; Congressional Research Service, 2024). Notably, China and Russia have forged an increasingly strategic partnership, encompassing joint lunar exploration, interoperable navigation constellations, shared space situational awareness (SSA) architectures, and co-developed counterspace capabilities (Egorov, 2023; Roscosmos & China National Space Administration [CNSA], 2018). This collaboration builds on post–Cold War realignments wherein Russia’s expertise in human spaceflight and propulsion complemented China’s rapidly expanding industrial base (Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS], 2023; Xinhua News Agency, 2016). Key bilateral agreements such as the 2016 lunar exploration Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and the 2021 SSA information‐sharing pact demonstrate the depth of their integration and the latent military potential of ostensibly civilian programs (United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs [UNOOSA], 2021; Wright et al., 2022). Joint initiatives like the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) and the forthcoming Silver Fox on-orbit servicing platform underscore the dual use nature of modern space technologies (RAND Corporation, 2022). For U.S. policymakers, this Sino-Russian axis complicates deterrence models, accelerates technology diffusion, and challenges the competitiveness of American commercial providers (U.S. Department of the Air Force, 2025; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, 2023). To address these challenges, the United States must adopt a coordinated response integrating active deterrence, allied SSA integration, industrial incentives, and enhanced export controls while championing transparency and new norms to preserve freedom of operation in orbit (Johnson- Freese, 2025; Rosenberger, 2024; Moltz, 2025).

Keywords: Space Cooperation, China-Russia Alliance, U.S. Strategic Security, Space Warfare, Technological Competition