Middle Powers in Flux: Rethinking ASEAN’s Role in a Multipolar Asia

Abstract

The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar international order has profoundly reshaped the strategic landscape of the Asia-Pacific. As the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China intensifies in the post-2020 era, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stands at a critical crossroads, balancing between competing powers while striving to maintain its centrality and cohesion. This article examines ASEAN’s evolving role as a collective middle power navigating the complex dynamics of security, geopolitics, and economic integration in a rapidly changing regional order. Through a synthesis of middle power theory and regionalism, it explores how ASEAN’s diplomatic strategies, institutional mechanisms, and normative frameworks are being recalibrated to respond to emerging challenges, including great-power rivalry, shifting trade patterns, and new security architectures. The study employs a qualitative research design, drawing on official ASEAN documents, policy statements, and scholarly literature to assess ASEAN’s strategic choices and their broader implications for regional stability. Findings suggest that while ASEAN’s normative emphasis on neutrality and consensus remains central, it faces increasing pressure to adapt to structural changes, diversify partnerships, and assert a more proactive strategic identity. The article concludes that ASEAN’s ability to redefine its role will depend on its success in strengthening internal cohesion, enhancing institutional capacity, and engaging constructively with external powers without compromising its autonomy.

Keywords: ASEAN, Multipolarity, Middle Power, Regionalism, Geopolitics, Indo-Pacific