The New Silk Road Gamble: Can China Turn Afghanistan’s Chaos into a Connectivity Win

Abstract

This article critically examines China’s evolving engagement with Afghanistan within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), focusing on the post-2021 geopolitical landscape following the Taliban’s return to power. It explores how China’s approach combines cautious diplomacy, strategic patience, and economic pragmatism to pursue long-term regional influence while avoiding direct political entanglement. The study highlights China’s dual objectives: securing its western borders from instability and integrating Afghanistan into broader regional connectivity networks linking Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. By analyzing China’s incremental investments in mining, energy, and infrastructure sectors, the article demonstrates how Beijing uses economic instruments as tools of soft power and stability management. It also discusses the challenges hindering deeper cooperation, including Afghanistan’s fragile governance, internal security threats, and the lack of international recognition of the Taliban regime. The analysis reveals that while China’s engagement represents an opportunity for Afghanistan’s reconstruction and integration into regional trade routes, it also raises concerns about dependency, unequal partnerships, and the risk of exploitative resource extraction. Ultimately, the article argues that Afghanistan serves as a critical test case for the resilience and adaptability of China’s BRI in conflict-affected regions. The success or failure of this engagement will determine whether the BRI can function as a framework for inclusive development and peacebuilding or remain an instrument of strategic expansion serving China’s geopolitical interests.

Keywords: China-Afghanistan Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Taliban Regime, Regional Connectivity, Economic Diplomacy, Strategic Engagement, Soft Power, Geopolitical Stability