From Strategic Depth to Strategic Distrust: Reassessing Pakistan's Afghanistan Policy after the U.S. Withdrawal and the Taliban's Return

Abstract

The withdrawal of United States forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 and the subsequent return of the Taliban marked a turning point in South Asian geopolitics. For Pakistan, these developments initially appeared to create favorable strategic conditions after two decades of regional instability and external military intervention. Many policymakers and observers expected that a Taliban-led government in Kabul would contribute to border stability, reduce security threats, and facilitate regional connectivity initiatives linking South Asia, Central Asia, and China. However, developments in the post-withdrawal period have challenged these expectations. The resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), disputes over border management, tensions surrounding the Durand Line, and diverging policy priorities have generated increasing mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul. This article examines the evolution of Pakistan's Afghanistan policy following the U.S. withdrawal and analyzes the transition from the traditional concept of strategic depth to a policy environment characterized by strategic distrust. It argues that while Pakistan initially viewed the Taliban's return as an opportunity to secure a more favorable regional environment, subsequent developments revealed significant differences between expectations and realities. Consequently, Pakistan is reassessing its Afghanistan policy through a framework that prioritizes security management, pragmatic engagement, and regional stability rather than assumptions of political alignment.

Keywords: Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations, Strategic Depth, Strategic Distrust, U.S. Withdrawal, Taliban, TTP, Durand Line, Regional Security, South Asia, Foreign Policy.

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20681368