The Perceived US Withdrawal from NATO: Challenges and Opportunities for European Union (2016-2024)

Abstract

With an emphasis on the European Union's (EU) reaction and changing security framework, this paper examines the strategic, political, and normative ramifications of a possible US exit from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) between 2016 and 2024. By applying the classical realist theoretical framework this article identifies three main aspects through thematic analysis of primary and secondary sources of data. The research concludes that despite increased attempts to integrate the EU's defense, the EU's strategic independence is still constrained by internal political division, disparate threat perceptions, and operational constraints. In the conclusion, this paper argues that the threat of a real or hypothetical US exit serves as both a problem and a stimulus for rethinking European security. The bloc's capacity to balance conflicting national interests with shared strategic goals will determine whether this results in a more unified and independent EU defense identity or strengthen reliance on transatlantic cooperation.

Keywords: US, NATO, European Union, Trump Administration