Bandwagoning under Structural Necessity: The China-Pakistan Strategic Alignment, 2010-2025

Abstract

This article uses the lens of Structural Realism to shed light on the growing strategic convergence between China and Pakistan (2010-2025) and its linkage to the changing great power dynamics between the United States and China. Based on the neorealist logic of Waltz and Mearsheimer's extension of it, and the concept of bandwagoning within the Structural Realist tradition, the China-Pakistan relationship is not a contingent one or one driven merely by transactional considerations, but rather one that stems from enduring, overlapping interests: the mutual goal of checking India's regional dominance, China's desire for an alternate sea route to the Indian Ocean, and Beijing's interest in stability along the troubled western border. It explores how this alignment has been institutionalised through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, increased military cooperation, and Pakistan's parallel, more transactional, relationship with the United States, as well as the structural weaknesses (debt dependency and sovereignty limitations) that question the sustainability of the relationship. The article concludes that Structural Realism, combined with the notion of bandwagoning, offers a strong account of the stability of the alignment, and that structural complementarity does not rule out the asymmetries of dependency that it involves.

Keywords: Structural Realism, bandwagoning, China-Pakistan relations, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, alliance formation, South Asia